Skip to content
DataNeverLies
The honest guide to what DataNeverLies is, and what it isn't

What is DataNeverLies?

DataNeverLies does three things for card traders: backtested buy signals, exact buy and sell prices for every venue, and pre-grade estimates before you pay to grade, plus the scanner, live portfolio, alerts, the bulk lot calculator, and a market assistant across three tiers. A free account is real access, not a demo; pre-grade and the signals are what Pro adds on top. All of it built on one rule: every price traces back to real market activity, anything modeled is labeled an estimate, and every claim survives a test. Here is everything it does, and the math on how it can pay for itself.

Real market data only, never asking pricesSignals publish only where the backtest proves an edge~2 years of real market data, point-in-time

Why it exists

The card market runs on bad information

Collectors price cards off asking prices that never sell, guides that quietly mix estimates with real data, and hype that arrives after the move already happened. Sellers leave money on the table because they don't know their floor; buyers overpay because they don't know what a venue-fair price is; and everyone submits cards for grading on a hunch.

DataNeverLies replaces all of that with measured data: 2.4M market prices tracked across 462K cards in 18 categories, repriced daily, across 16 grade tiers.

Everything you get

The complete toolkit

Browsing the price guide and the grading calculator is free forever, no account. A free account adds 10 card unlocks a month (yours to keep) and 2 AI pre-grades. Collector and Pro unlock the tools below.

Buy signals with a published, replayable track record

Pro

The flagship. Every night the engine scores every actively traded card and grade from 0 to 100 with a proprietary multi-factor model. Buys flag cards set up to rebound, meaning a durable turn rather than a one-day blip. It then publishes plain-language BUY calls where the backtest supports them, currently sports cards only, with the strongest calls labelled STRONG BUY. Other categories publish when they pass the same test, and not before. The exact signals and their weights are ours.

Testing that gets stricter as our data does. Before launch we replayed the engine point-in-time across ~2 years of real daily market prices (100 weekly windows), using only the data that existed at each point. Since then we have graded outcomes against real completed sales, and we re-test after every data-cleaning pass. One of those tests withdrew our highest-scoring band for a month when it measured negative; a later cleaning pass found the bad sale data behind that reading, and with it removed the band re-measured as our strongest, so it publishes again. The latest full test puts published buys about 5 points ahead of the market over the following days, with solid statistical confidence. After typical selling fees the absolute return was not distinguishable from zero, so treat signals as a tool for buying at the right price, not a promised return. Every call is logged before its outcome is known.

And the part most sites won't tell you: where the test doesn't prove an edge, we don't publish. The sell side is the working example. It never produced enough graded results to show whether sell calls worked, so we stopped publishing them instead of leaving something unproven running. That's what "DataNeverLies" means.

Exact buy & sell prices for every card, at every venue

Collector

A signal tells you when to act. These tools tell you at what price. For any card and grade, get a ready-made sell ladder (95 / 90 / 85 / 80% of market value) and buy ladder (80 down to 60%). On eBay, the ~13% seller fee is netted out of your sell targets so you see what you'd actually pocket (TCGplayer gets the same treatment on raw TCG cards, with its ~12.75% in fees); dealing cash at a show, the numbers work differently.

The buy advisor goes one step further: type in an asking price, pick the venue, and it tells you steal / buy / fair / rich / pass, factoring in the card's liquidity (thinly traded cards get an automatic discount) and any active signal on the card. It's guidance, not financial advice, and every buying decision, along with its outcome, is yours alone.

Pre-grade estimates: know before you pay to grade

Pro

Thinking about grading a raw card? The pre-grade tool examines your photos (front and back), measures centering to the pixel, and returns a decimal-precision grade estimate, like PSA 9.54, inside a likely range, with per-category subgrades and plain-language reasons for the number: what supports it and which flaw is holding it back. It adapts its inspection to the card in the photo, whether that's a holofoil Pokémon card, a modern chrome parallel, or vintage paper. All before you spend grading fees and months of turnaround on a card that's unlikely to earn a top grade. It's an estimate to inform the decision, not a grade. A free account includes 2 pre-grades to try it; Pro removes the limit.

The same AI scanner identifies any card from a photo (set, number, parallel) and pulls its live prices. Slabbed card? It reads the label and cert number in seconds so you can verify it on the grader's site before money changes hands.

A price guide built from real market data, nothing else

Free

Prices for every tracked card come from actual market activity: primarily JustTCG's per-condition market prices (TCGplayer market price fills any gap) across all 13 tracked trading card games (Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh!, Pokémon, Pokémon Japan, Dragon Ball Super, Flesh and Blood, Star Wars Unlimited, One Piece, Union Arena, Digimon, Lorcana, Gundam, and Riftbound), and real recorded sold prices (from eBay and the major auction houses) for sports cards. No asking prices, no listings, no made-up numbers.

Raw and ungraded prices come straight from live market data (per-condition market prices). Graded values (PSA, BGS, CGC, SGC) show real graded-sale prices where they exist, and estimates everywhere else. Every estimate is labeled, never mixed in with real prices, and excluded from the signals and indexes. Raw TCG cards also get the standard condition ladder: Near Mint is the live market price, and Lightly Played through Damaged use standard market discounts, labeled as estimates.

Portfolio, watchlist & price alerts

Collector

Add your collection and it becomes a live portfolio: current value by real market prices, gains and losses against what you paid, and a performance chart over time. It's like a brokerage account for cardboard.

Watch any card and set price alerts in either direction; alert digests land in your inbox, so the market comes to you.

A market assistant that reads the live data

Collector

The built-in AI analyst answers with the actual guide in front of it: real comps, your real portfolio, live category indexes. Ask it what to sell first, whether a price is fair, or how a set has moved since January, and it cites the data it used.

The name is the policy

Why you can trust the numbers

Four rules the product is built around, including the ones that cost us flashy marketing claims.

Real market data only

Prices derive from completed sales and market prices, never active listings or asking prices. If a card hasn't traded, we say so instead of inventing a number.

Proven edge or no signal

Signals publish only where the point-in-time backtest proves they work. When part of the model cannot clear that bar, it does not ship: sell calls never produced enough graded results to prove an edge, so we stopped publishing them instead of selling you noise.

Estimates are labeled

Grade-curve interpolations and condition discounts are marked as estimates everywhere they appear. Real observations and modeled numbers never masquerade as each other.

Stale data says it's stale

A card that last sold ten months ago shows 'last sold' with the date, not a fresh-looking 30-day count. Sale-to-card matching is audited against the raw listing titles: every confirmed mismatch is purged and the matcher hardened so it can't recur.

Worth every penny

The membership math

Pro is $29.99/month, or $199.99/year (≈ $16.67/month). If just ONE of these happens for you in a month, membership has paid for itself:

One disciplined sale

+$30

$200 card · cash sale at a show · 95% instead of a panicked 80%

The sell ladder tells you where to list and where your floor is. Holding the line once on a single $200 card covers a month of membership.

One avoided overpay

+$30

$300 card · offered at 85% when a fair in-person price is 75%

The buy advisor prices every venue differently: dealers at shows expect cash discounts eBay buyers don't get. One 'Rich, negotiate' verdict a month pays for the tool that gave it.

One skipped grading miss

≈$25+

grading fee + shipping on a card that wouldn't gem

A pre-grade estimate that talks you out of one bad submission saves the fee, the shipping, and months of waiting. That's several months of membership in one decision.

Scenarios are hypothetical examples using the product's actual trade ladders; your results depend on your cards and your market. These are informational only, not financial advice, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

Start free, upgrade when it pays for itself

A free account gets you 10 real card prices a month and 2 AI pre-grades with no card. Collector adds the card scanner, trade tools including the bulk lot calculator, and portfolio with unlimited lookups; Pro adds unlimited AI pre-grade and the backtested buy signals. Both paid tiers offer a 7-day trial, and cancellation is one click.

Collector · Monthly

$14.99

$14.99/mo

Pro · MonthlyMost popular

$29.99

$29.99/mo

Pro · Annual

$199.99

$16.67/mo

Or keep browsing the free price guide. It's real data either way. More questions? See the FAQ.

📱

And yes, a mobile app is coming

We're building this the right way: website first, until it's the best card-data tool it can be. As more collectors join, a native app is next on the roadmap. Every membership genuinely brings it closer, and we can't wait to put it in your pocket. Until then, the whole site is built to work beautifully on your phone.